The risk of developing diseases associated with heatwaves in Antioquia, Atlántico and Valle del Cauca
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33610/01229907.2020v2n2a2Keywords:
Heatstroke, Heatwave, Exposure to environmental heat, Geospatial modeling, MAXENTAbstract
Introduction: There is a lack of documentation in tropical countries like Colombia on the impact of heatwaves on human health. Therefore, it is unknown if the morbidity associated with exposure to environmental heat could be related to the changes in temperature experienced in recent decades and attributed to global warming.
Objective: To identify the areas of Antioquia, Atlántico and Valle del Cauca with the highest risk of developing heatstroke and diseases related to exposure to environmental heat.
Materials and methods: MAXENT software was used to calculate the probability of occurrence of heatstroke cases and similar diseases according to the maximum surface temperature, based on the maximum entropy of the data.
Results: with probabilities greater than 70 %, it was found that the areas at risk of presenting diseases related to hyperthermia are located mainly in Antioquia, at the east, south and center of the department. In Valle del Cauca throughout the area of influence of the Cauca river and the Atlantic throughout 21 the entire territory. The percentages of surface temperature contribution to the predictive models, generated by date for the three departments, indicated that the temperature up to two and three days before a health care attention was the most relevant (>80 % contribution) for the generation of heatstroke and similar diseases.
Conclusion: surveillance of events related to diseases associated with exposure to natural environmental heat should be intensified in areas of the country that naturally tend to present environmental conditions that favour the occurrence of heatwaves and in densely populated cities. The generation of predictive geographic models that use environmental information and health care records is an alternative that helps enrich epidemiological intelligence in the face of different environmental risks due to climate change that can potentially affect Colombians' health.
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