Tuberculosis in Colombia, 2014-2023: evolution and changes in trend
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33610/28059611.164Keywords:
tuberculosis, incidence, ; time series studies, Colombia, national health surveillance systemAbstract
Introduction. Tuberculosis remains a major public health challenge in Colombia. Despite advances in diagnosis and treatment, the country has experienced fluctuations in incidence, with persistent challenges, particularly in vulnerable communities. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trend of tuberculosis in Colombia between 2014 and 2023. Methodology. An ecological time series study was conducted to evaluate tuberculosis incidence in Colombia from 2014 to 2023. Data was obtained from the National Public Health Surveillance System and population projections from the National Administrative Department of Statistics. Trend analysis was performed using joinpoint regression. Results. The national average tuberculosis incidence from 2014 to 2023 was 27,5 cases per 100 000 population. The temporal analysis identified two significant trend shifts. From 2014 to 2019, a decreasing annual trend of 1,3 % was observed (p=0,04). However, from 2020 to 2023, incidence showed a significant annual increase of 12,5 % (p=0,001). For bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis, two inflection points were identified. The first, from 2014 to 2019, showed a decreasing trend without statistical significance. The second, from 2020 to 2023, revealed a statistically significant annual increase of 18,5 % (p=0,002). Pulmonary tuberculosis exhibited a significant annual increase over the last four years, whereas no significant trend change was observed for extrapulmonary tuberculosis. Conclusion. Between 2020 and 2023, there was a significant increase in all forms of tuberculosis, with a marked rise in laboratory-confirmed cases and pulmonary tuberculosis. In contrast, no significant change was observed in extrapulmonary tuberculosis. These findings underscore the urgent need to strengthen tuberculosis control strategies, particularly for pulmonary tuberculosis.References
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